Sports scientist Ross Tucker, presents a more analytical look at the chances of one day seeing a sub-2 hour marathon run. He borrows a little from the history of the event and also the commercial aspects that might in some respects prevent great athletes from breaking the record. He then speculates on who might come through in our lifetimes.

The Key Points:

• Marathon running is in something of a golden era, 10 years ago the marathon world record stood at 2:06:50 and since then has dropped almost 3 minutes!
• When the next generation of endurance runners, the Tergat’s, the Gebrselassie’s, the Hissou’s, moved up to the marathon and the anticipated “overhauls” in the Marathon were proven correct
• Ross correlates what’s happening in the marathon with what happened over 5,000m and 10,000m on the track in the 1990′s – the 10,000m was lowered an incredible 30 seconds over a four year period when Gebrselassie, Hissou and Tergat were going at it! The point being that this kind of performance over 10,000m predicted what would eventually happen in the marathon, because the best predictor of Marathon performance is 10k time.
• While the drop in 10,000m world record was dramatic, it has recently plateaued, and come down less than 5 seconds since 1998 (thanks to Kenenisa Bekele of Ethiopia), a similar thing has happened in the 5,000m, which fell by a staggering 18 seconds in the four years up to 1998, then took another six years to fall just 2 seconds (Bekele again)
• This would indicate that while there has been a dramatic decrease in times in the marathon, it is unlikely to keep falling at the same rate.

So it seems a sub 2-hour Marathon is unlikely for a while yet and this is not even taking into account the commercial aspect of professional Marathon running – Ross has some thoughts as well as an opinion on the most likely candidates to lower the world record, it’s an interesting read.

I always really enjoy reading the fantastic reports on the latest sporting achievements at The Science of Sport blog. Not only do the authors Jonathan and Ross provide top quality scientific comment and analysis of sports and sporting performance, but they truly love their sport! The enthusiasm and passion in which they deliver their pieces is truly refreshing and too rarely seen!

Reporting on Haile Gebrselassie’s 2:03:59 world record in Berlin, Ross has delivered some fine race commentary and analysis including a break-down of the 5k splits.

It’s interesting to note is that Kenyan James Kwambai, who has finished 2nd in the Boston Marathon to Robert Cheruiyot and achieved a solid fifth at November’s New York Marathon when rebounding from injury that had kept him out of last years Berlin Marathon, held onto this incredible pace until the 35k mark. Unfortunately for James, the 5k between 35k and 40k proved to be the fastest in the entire race which is incredible and testament to Gebrselassie’s finishing ability given that this mark is a point where marathoners have traditionally blown out.

While Gebrselassie praised pacemakers for their great pacing strategy, Ross remains critical:

I saw the initial reports are all proclaiming the great pacing, and I disagree. Last year stood out for its magnificent pacing effort, this year was spectacular because of those final 10km. Absolutely amazing.

And yes, maybe 15 seconds (at least) in the bank if the pacing is better…!

So despite a fantastic performance and a sub-2:04, maybe there is room for improvement yet in the distance king! Ross will deliver a further analysis of the race and a comparison with last year’s Berlin Marathon soon.

Follow the link for the full report on Gebreslassie’s WOLRD RECORD run.

Gebrselassie won ahead of Kenyans James Kwambai (2:05:36) and Charles Kamathi (2:07.48).

Making the most of perfect conditions, the Ethiopian passed the halfway mark in 1:02:05 then shifted up a gear to record the second half in 1:01:54 and claim his 26th career world record.

Gebrselassie will be back in Berlin to run the marathon at the world championships next year, which will take place on a different course.

German Irina Mikitenko, took out the women’s race and became the fourth fastest women in history with 2:19:19 hours. Only Briton Paula Radcliffe (2:15:25), Catherine Ndereba of Kenya (2:18.47) und Mizuki Noguchi of Japan (2:19.12) have run faster.

This Sunday, Haile Gebrselassie will line up for the Berlin Marathon with one thought on his mind: Dropping his current world record of 2:04:26 even further!

In their excellent Science of Sport blog Jonathan and Ross write about the event:

You’ll recall that it was earlier this year that Geb announced that he would not run the Olympic Marathon because he did not want to “damage” his long term-health in the polluted Chinese capital – many were skeptical then, suggesting that the big pay-day of a Berlin World record was the real reason he didn’t run. And now, 6 months later, that potential pay-day has arrived.

A big pay-day indeed if he can pull it off! So Geb apparently missed the Olympic marathon for this, but what are his chances of pulling in a world’s best time? and could he even push under 2:04?

Gebrselassie set the current world record in Berlin and will go down as the only man in history to run world-beating marathons in two consecutive years if he can pull it off again and providing no one else runs faster. Another record within reach is combined total for two marathons in one year. The best is 4:11:34 when Khalid Khannouchi ran 2:05:38 (London) and 2:05:56 (Chicago) in 2002. Gebreselassie would need 2:06:40 or better to beat this.

His record was challenged at London last April when Martin Lel and Samuel Wanjiru covered 30 kilometers 27 seconds faster than Gebrselassie’s Berlin split, but the pace slowed down, Lel eventually winning in 2:05:15.

Since Berlin, Gebrselassie has run a marathon in Dubai, but took the pace out too hard clocking 61:27 at the half way mark, with led to the pace “blowing out” to 2:04:53.

So is another world record on the cards? With Gebrselassie you could never discount him! The Scientists of Sport predict he will most likely push too hard again and run 2:04:40. Of course perfect weather is always essential for any world beating performance over this distance.

Browse to the full article that gives a full analysis and prediction of Gebrselassie’s record attempt for this year’s 2008 Berlin marathon.

I found this great poll in the Runner’s World forum that poses the question: If you could choose a world record in any running event, which one would it be? The outcome was unanimous and frankly surprised me!.
Why not cast your vote?